I don't expect childless people to walk around apologizing or sad-faced - look at Dolly Parton; she had a lot of fun even though she never wanted to be childless, and did so much good for so many children. What I object to is the performative angry gleefulness of some - insisting that they be called "child-FREE" as if children were vermin. It's unhealthy and hostile.
You definitely get at something most people don’t appreciate, which is that there is a huge chasm between parents and childless adults. I’m often at a loss of how understand them as I’m sure they’re at a similar loss trying to understand me. This will precipitate conflict and distrust, and it may get ugly, particularly in progressive blue states.
But, this may bolster the sense of identity in red states where having kids is a good thing and government respects parental rights. Already, we’re seeing this split between the states. As a teacher in Texas, it’s very much the opposite of what you predict. Parents have the last word here. But I know it’s not like that in other states.
We’ll see how this goes. I intend to go forth boldly and take the high ground. I know some people are unlucky at the game of love and family, but most aren’t really trying. I have no interest in winning their approval.
"The only thing keeping the nation from being conquered is the fact it will be a global phenomenon, with global consequences." I've had this thought about China, which is currently doing its best to hide its own internal collapse: civilizations are too tired and demoralized to defeat each other now. You left out Muslims and Africans, however, two cohorts that don't seem at all likely to lose their militant cohesion, whereas demographic collapse is the illness of the smart and resource-rich. In any case, your prognostications are solid and compelling. Next time I'll bring popcorn.
A number of Muslim majority countries are below replacement rate, and some in Sub-Saharan Africa are coming close to falling below (plus many Black majority countries in the Caribbean are sub-replacement). Muslims and Africans are not immune to demographic collapse, they'll just be the last ones to get there.
Well, that's cold comfort if "Muhammad" is the current most common birth name for boys in the UK. How long before it drops out of the running, do you think? Informal conquest is already underway.
Well sure, but once the aid stops, it all collapses. Look up almost any country in Africa. more than half the GDP is foreign aid (seriously), and I'm sure 90% of that is fraud, theft and grift. Once all those aid programs stop, the medical aid, etc, it all collapses into the usual African wars. (see Congo civil war 1 and 2, 1994 to 2005 ish or so, it's not really over now).
The real point about Africans is that they're not in Africa any more; they're in Europe and America, and whatever clashes they conjure from a dark swarm of third-worldists will increasingly be fought in your front yard, Mr. BDH. Our current Camp-of-the-Saints immigration policy results in YouTube suicide runs of the streets of Paris and St. Paul that furnish ample evidence against your idea that the problem of excessive Africans will just blow over. The west fertilized Africa, farmed Africans by the millions, then started importing them by the boatload so they could identify as disadvanted minorities and keep growing in artificial hothouse conditions created by guilty maternal westerners. Dark swarms will be a big part of the bumpy future that Alan Schmidt is prognosticating. It isn't just demographic decline, but demographic decline accompanied by a sense of being outnumbered and dominated by invaders.
The real point about China is that nobody knows what's happening there unless they look at backchannels and leaks. (Retaining its population, eh? Think we'll ever find out how many Covid fatalities they had, or are currently having?) The young in China can't find jobs, aren't getting married or having kids, and factories keep going up in flames. And I'm not sure "political coherence" can be ascribed to authoritarian fiefdoms that send unmarked death vans around, collecting the uncooperative and making them disappear.
Federalism, coupled by Darwinian sorting, may save us, as Auguste obliquely suggests. Pro-family areas are functioning quite well and surging; families are firmly in charge and are pandered to - or obeyed? - by elected representatives. I predict something like an Urban-Childless vs Ex-Urban-Family splitting of the American Pie. Cities will teem with the self-interested while the family-oriented will look for 2-10+ acres. Already happening, isn't it?
I think this would be more persuasive if you cited any of those societies much further down the path of decreasing population (Korea, China, Europe, etc.,) to show if your short term predictions are being borne out or not
Absolutely true. Very well out indeed. I'm working on a Substack of my own on the same subject, but with more emphasis on the full extent of the coming crash for those who still don't quite grasp it. Thank you!
Probably should not have read this black-pill as a pregnant Christian mother 🥲 I seem to be on the wrong side of substack today. Is it naive to hope that longer-term, things will get better because largely, the only ones having children (and many of them) are Christian? God-willing, the sick and disgusting anti-natal and woke agenda will die with those who propogate it
Childless millennials and zoomers are the new boomers. Only thinking of themselves and the here and now. Can’t fathom that other people exist and live different lives.
The west won't have a demographic spiral because our rulers are busy replacing westerners with with hostile, low IQ foreigners. That's even scarier than a population crash.
Woof what a read, while this is a problem, what outrageous hyperbole you’ve added to the problem, which won’t fix it. Strong men make good times, good times make weak men, weak men make hard times and hard times make good men. By your fanatical prognostications of doom I can tell you’re one of the weaker ones. Stop bitching and stoking fear and put your big boy pants on and start building a better world. It’s what humans (the strong ones) have always done. From a mother.
I don't expect childless people to walk around apologizing or sad-faced - look at Dolly Parton; she had a lot of fun even though she never wanted to be childless, and did so much good for so many children. What I object to is the performative angry gleefulness of some - insisting that they be called "child-FREE" as if children were vermin. It's unhealthy and hostile.
It is going to get a lot worse.
I would say Dolly is the exception that proves the rule. She is such a stand out precisely because most of the childless people aren't like that.
Many of them are not - especially the ones who identify as "child-free."
You definitely get at something most people don’t appreciate, which is that there is a huge chasm between parents and childless adults. I’m often at a loss of how understand them as I’m sure they’re at a similar loss trying to understand me. This will precipitate conflict and distrust, and it may get ugly, particularly in progressive blue states.
But, this may bolster the sense of identity in red states where having kids is a good thing and government respects parental rights. Already, we’re seeing this split between the states. As a teacher in Texas, it’s very much the opposite of what you predict. Parents have the last word here. But I know it’s not like that in other states.
We’ll see how this goes. I intend to go forth boldly and take the high ground. I know some people are unlucky at the game of love and family, but most aren’t really trying. I have no interest in winning their approval.
A lot of it depends on the tenacity of parents to hold their ground against an increasingly hostile culture.
It’s cute that you think there will still be technology and democracy after the men keeping on the lights stop turning up. :)
Once the lights go out, it will be a young man’s world.
Mouse utopia
"The only thing keeping the nation from being conquered is the fact it will be a global phenomenon, with global consequences." I've had this thought about China, which is currently doing its best to hide its own internal collapse: civilizations are too tired and demoralized to defeat each other now. You left out Muslims and Africans, however, two cohorts that don't seem at all likely to lose their militant cohesion, whereas demographic collapse is the illness of the smart and resource-rich. In any case, your prognostications are solid and compelling. Next time I'll bring popcorn.
A number of Muslim majority countries are below replacement rate, and some in Sub-Saharan Africa are coming close to falling below (plus many Black majority countries in the Caribbean are sub-replacement). Muslims and Africans are not immune to demographic collapse, they'll just be the last ones to get there.
Well, that's cold comfort if "Muhammad" is the current most common birth name for boys in the UK. How long before it drops out of the running, do you think? Informal conquest is already underway.
Well sure, but once the aid stops, it all collapses. Look up almost any country in Africa. more than half the GDP is foreign aid (seriously), and I'm sure 90% of that is fraud, theft and grift. Once all those aid programs stop, the medical aid, etc, it all collapses into the usual African wars. (see Congo civil war 1 and 2, 1994 to 2005 ish or so, it's not really over now).
The real point about Africans is that they're not in Africa any more; they're in Europe and America, and whatever clashes they conjure from a dark swarm of third-worldists will increasingly be fought in your front yard, Mr. BDH. Our current Camp-of-the-Saints immigration policy results in YouTube suicide runs of the streets of Paris and St. Paul that furnish ample evidence against your idea that the problem of excessive Africans will just blow over. The west fertilized Africa, farmed Africans by the millions, then started importing them by the boatload so they could identify as disadvanted minorities and keep growing in artificial hothouse conditions created by guilty maternal westerners. Dark swarms will be a big part of the bumpy future that Alan Schmidt is prognosticating. It isn't just demographic decline, but demographic decline accompanied by a sense of being outnumbered and dominated by invaders.
China is at least retaining its Chinese population and political coherence.
The real point about China is that nobody knows what's happening there unless they look at backchannels and leaks. (Retaining its population, eh? Think we'll ever find out how many Covid fatalities they had, or are currently having?) The young in China can't find jobs, aren't getting married or having kids, and factories keep going up in flames. And I'm not sure "political coherence" can be ascribed to authoritarian fiefdoms that send unmarked death vans around, collecting the uncooperative and making them disappear.
Federalism, coupled by Darwinian sorting, may save us, as Auguste obliquely suggests. Pro-family areas are functioning quite well and surging; families are firmly in charge and are pandered to - or obeyed? - by elected representatives. I predict something like an Urban-Childless vs Ex-Urban-Family splitting of the American Pie. Cities will teem with the self-interested while the family-oriented will look for 2-10+ acres. Already happening, isn't it?
The author is living in conquered America. Generational apathy is endemic to the rez.
O.G. American States were nations. Consider the still-free American States, where a small wedding of only close blood family runs to 80 people.
Interesting times.
I think this would be more persuasive if you cited any of those societies much further down the path of decreasing population (Korea, China, Europe, etc.,) to show if your short term predictions are being borne out or not
Absolutely true. Very well out indeed. I'm working on a Substack of my own on the same subject, but with more emphasis on the full extent of the coming crash for those who still don't quite grasp it. Thank you!
Social Matter is the ratty little cousin of Tree of Woe. Keep it coming.
Well said, and this is already underway.
Probably should not have read this black-pill as a pregnant Christian mother 🥲 I seem to be on the wrong side of substack today. Is it naive to hope that longer-term, things will get better because largely, the only ones having children (and many of them) are Christian? God-willing, the sick and disgusting anti-natal and woke agenda will die with those who propogate it
Childless millennials and zoomers are the new boomers. Only thinking of themselves and the here and now. Can’t fathom that other people exist and live different lives.
Unlike the boomers they inherit the ashes.They people setting the example for them did not live in as disjointed of a time as them.
The west won't have a demographic spiral because our rulers are busy replacing westerners with with hostile, low IQ foreigners. That's even scarier than a population crash.
Woof what a read, while this is a problem, what outrageous hyperbole you’ve added to the problem, which won’t fix it. Strong men make good times, good times make weak men, weak men make hard times and hard times make good men. By your fanatical prognostications of doom I can tell you’re one of the weaker ones. Stop bitching and stoking fear and put your big boy pants on and start building a better world. It’s what humans (the strong ones) have always done. From a mother.
If you want people to read your stuff don't use the passive voice in the second damned sentence, Jesus Christ.